Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon to march on Rome and establish a dynasty.
Today’s armed rebellion in Russia, following months’ of Byzantine power plays, has something of Ancient Rome about it. But coming just days after Vladimir Putin announced nuclear weapons were being deployed in Belarus, the global stakes are worryingly higher.
Experts have pored over the slew of claims and counterclaims between Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and Moscow’s military establishment. The bickering was, we were variously told, a ruse – a deliberate distraction created by the Kremlin; or it was Putin’s manipulation designed to keep both sides in check; or it might have been both sides simply jockeying for power.
Now we know it was nothing of the sort – first impressions were correct. Even though some Ukrainian military leaders were this morning still warning that more Moscow trickery might be involved, it does appear we were seeing a very public expression of the hatred between the Prigozhin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff.
Vladimir Putin created a monster with the Prigozhin-led Wagner Group.
He allowed a bunch of well-trained commandoes-cum pitiless murderers, supported by a rag-tag bunch of violent ex-cons, to pillage Africa. Now he’s set them loose closer to home, to murder Russia’s neighbours, and it’s all gone horribly wrong. This is probably only a surprise to Putin himself.
Moscow’s military establishment has seen, with increasing jealousy, all the money that Prigozhin’s thugs have been raking in, and the special favours they’ve enjoyed. In the Ukraine war, the defence ministry sought revenge by sending Wagner fighters on the most dangerous missions and even sought to starve them.
Adding to Prigozhin’s woes, his thugs – even the professional ones – have discovered there’s a difference between murdering African civilians and poorly-trained Sahel militias, and taking on highly-motivated Ukrainians armed with the latest Nato weapons. Wagner forces have been dying in numbers that have appalled even their merciless boss.
We don’t know if Russia’s military deliberately bombed Wagner forces, as Prigozhin claims. Friendly fire does happen in war – particularly when forces as inept as Russia’s military are involved.
But it appears to have been the last straw for Prigozhin.
He says his fighters will not turn themselves in as “we do not want the country to live on in corruption, deceit and bureaucracy”.
The view by most analysts this morning is that the mutiny is unlikely to produce a full-scale rebellion. Rostov-on-Don will probably not be remembered like the Rubicon river.
But events have shocked Russia’s already paranoid dictator.
For a leader who professes – and is widely believed – to enjoy complete control over his police state, Putin did not sound like a man entirely in command of this destiny comments this morning, as he condemned the rebellion at a time when Russia was “fighting the toughest battle for its future” with its war in Ukraine.
“The entire military, economic and information machine of the West is waged against us,” the Russian leader said. An armed rebellion at a time like this is “a blow to Russia, to its people”. For “Russia” and “people” read: “me”.
Putin expert and Russia speaker William Alberque, the Berlin-based director of strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said this morning: “I’ve seen thousands of his speeches, but I’ve never seen anything like this. His emotions are out of control. He’s using the most emotive words in Russia for terms like death and betrayal. He’s filled with rage and emotion. And he’s scared. This is astonishing.”
For those who regard Putin’s Russia as an increasingly dangerous abomination, today’s events might prompt a degree of schadenfreude. But this is quickly erased by the wider reality. Russia, a vast, nuclear-armed empire, is likely to remain in enmity with the West for the time being. There is no reason to think that the risk of armed confrontation between the former Cold War enemies will recede thanks to a coup attempt. On the contrary, the rising instability could make the dangers even worse.
Anti-Kremlin figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky urged Russians to support Prigozhin, saying it was acceptable to back “even the devil” in taking on the Putin regime. But be careful what you wish for.
What can the West do? Not a great deal. There’s no doubt, however, that Nato leaders will be watching the situation with alarm. It is in times of crisis like this that dictators and authoritarian regimes are likely to do something desperate and dangerous; something to distract attention from their internal strife, possibly raising the stakes in conflict with other countries.
However this ends, Putin will be weakened. The divide-and-rule structure of the regime he has built around himself, to prevent senior officials rising to challenge his authority, may offer him some protection in the short term. But by being threatened and attacked by his own mercenary army, he has exposed himself to the scorn of other Kremlin and military figures. As one analyst noted this morning: “It doesn’t look good when your own pit bull turns around and bites you on the face.”
And for Russia itself, the future looks uncertain.
Predictions some of us have made, that this vast country might be living on borrowed time, don’t look so far-fetched.
Russia is the last of the colonial empires. Rome or Russia, they don’t last forever. But in the nuclear age, the whole world watches with bated breath.
